What You Must Know
- The estimate displays a 0.2% rise in costs in June and a 3% improve over the prior 12 months, in line with The Senior Residents League.
- The precise 2024 COLA can be primarily based on third-quarter inflation knowledge and can be introduced in October.
The Senior Residents League estimates the Social Safety cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, for 2024 can be 3%, primarily based on the most recent shopper value index knowledge, launched Wednesday,
The CPI knowledge reveals that costs have risen by 3.0% over the previous 12 months whereas rising 0.2% in June. That is up barely from a 0.1% improve throughout Might, exhibiting a gradual, if modest, lower in annual inflation.
The group’s Social Safety COLA estimate for 2024 is up from final month’s prediction of two.7% however far under the near-record 8.7% COLA for 2023.
Mary Johnson, the league’s Social Safety and Medicare coverage analyst, bases month-to-month COLA estimates on modifications within the Client Value Index for City Wage Earners and Clerical Staff, referred to as the CPI-W.
Since January of this 12 months, Johnson tells ThinkAdvisor, the precise inflation price, as measured by the CPI-W, was decrease than the quantity older Individuals obtained of their 8.7% COLAs. That distinction theoretically ought to present a modest short-term enchancment in shopping for energy for a retiree.
As Johnson tells ThinkAdvisor concerning the new June knowledge, a COLA of three% would elevate the present common month-to-month advantage of $1,787.00 by a little bit greater than $53.60, however Social Safety recipients received’t be taught the underside line till the Medicare Half B premiums are introduced.
In a few years, Johnson says, the Half B premium improve can take most, and even all, of the COLA, leaving little else to cowl different rising costs.
June 2023 Knowledge Boosts COLA Projection
The index for shelter was the biggest contributor to the slight month-to-month uptick in costs, accounting for over 70% of the rise, with the index for motorcar insurance coverage additionally contributing.
The meals index elevated 0.1% in June after rising 0.2% the earlier month. The index for meals at house was unchanged over the month, whereas the index for meals away from house rose extra considerably, at 0.4%, throughout June.
The power index rose 0.6% in June as the most important power element indexes have been blended.
